Monday, June 8, 2009

Orders in for $DYAX, $NL, and $SBCF

Ok, I spent some time backtesting the strategy used to pick the above stocks for different accounts, starting funds, and commissions. With a limited amount of money, the strategy was 15% down over the last 52 weeks. My best scenario was using $20,000 with $2,000 buy-ins per stock. Worst case scenario was screening the S&P 500 for this strategy. Best case scenarios involved the Russell 2000. A lot more screening to do, but probably a little less risk of buying into a fully matured company that has resorted to shananigans to continue earnings growth.

The following test is for $700 in capital in a BuyAndHold IRA account ($2.99 commissions), with $200 buy-ins per stock that hits the buy signal. At the end of the test, the positions are liquidated:
Symbol Date Action Quantity Price Profit-Loss Profit-Loss % Cumulative P&L
ARTC 1/2/2009 Buy 41 4.86 0 0 0
ACAD 1/2/2009 Buy 219 0.91 0 0 0
APP 1/2/2009 Buy 91 2.18 0 0 0
APP 2/11/2009 Sell 91 2.28 3.12 1.57 3.12
VPHM 2/11/2009 Buy 32 6.19 0 0 0
VPHM 4/7/2009 Sell 32 4.88 -47.9 -24.18 -47.9
CYTK 4/8/2009 Buy 121 1.65 0 0 0
ARTC 4/20/2009 Sell 41 10.7 233.46 117.16 233.46
RGLD 4/20/2009 Buy 5 35.77 0 0 0
MPG 4/21/2009 Buy 206 0.97 0 0 0
MPG 6/5/2009 Sell 206 1.12 24.92 12.47 24.92
ACAD 6/5/2009 Sell 219 2.49 340.04 170.63 340.04
CYTK 6/5/2009 Sell 121 2.95 151.32 75.79 151.32
RGLD 6/5/2009 Sell 5 44.91 39.72 22.21 39.72

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